Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-27 15.790905 17.999418 20.367414 23.090762 26.131650 29.417879 33.233217
2025-08-03 12.235149 15.191435 18.599797 22.801746 27.823218 33.611076 40.765547
2025-08-10 10.493535 13.767152 17.720461 22.812252 29.158897 36.768377 46.537613
2025-08-17 9.234711 12.730503 17.130434 23.020738 30.637925 40.087625 52.619712
2025-08-24 8.173665 11.773042 16.471465 22.977067 31.661921 42.755754 57.880200
2025-08-31 7.252566 10.883108 15.785324 22.787206 32.410228 45.032541 62.674025
2025-09-07 6.592435 10.270574 15.392529 22.916539 33.530321 47.784821 68.151121
2025-09-14 6.186112 9.971531 15.391839 23.557355 35.347083 51.515777 75.069929
2025-09-21 5.587327 9.323821 14.827154 23.330575 35.896834 53.492590 79.622447
2025-09-28 4.862927 8.411450 13.792139 22.324666 35.235602 53.698275 81.650386
2025-10-05 4.629167 8.247438 13.866368 22.967295 37.004802 57.421885 88.816148
2025-10-12 4.374850 8.024250 13.825476 23.417339 38.489348 60.772597 95.550658
2025-10-19 4.018561 7.606417 13.455283 23.341990 39.187994 63.025866 100.820944
2025-10-26 3.657288 7.146825 12.981753 23.065865 39.550577 64.780272 105.409731
2025-11-02 3.387188 6.820390 12.699259 23.071036 40.338872 67.190206 111.053673
2025-11-09 3.178605 6.585261 12.551414 23.283517 41.459912 70.145816 117.632831
2025-11-16 2.947255 6.285516 12.266762 23.238745 42.143620 72.424232 123.218873
2025-11-23 2.715042 5.961785 11.913670 23.047198 42.560722 74.277283 128.179139
2025-11-30 2.550160 5.753851 11.752612 23.177756 43.518580 77.025305 134.650252
2025-12-07 2.467953 5.704092 11.878177 23.825052 45.388728 81.327380 143.777515
2025-12-14 2.279062 5.417421 11.536574 23.595981 45.709391 83.061546 148.740357
2025-12-21 2.013302 4.942509 10.797706 22.579926 44.575168 82.293788 149.505198
2025-12-28 1.958372 4.917961 10.937915 23.229044 46.461293 86.720296 159.120003